Betting splits are not the same as public sentiment.
We capture sentiment data for sports betting spread markets so you can spot one-sided public opinion more directly. The comparison belowto the right shows how that signal performed against fading betting splits alone.
Comparison uses the same college basketball game universe across — games: Power 6 regular-season games, all March Madness games, and NIT games involving Power 6 teams. Same dates (— to —), same pregame odds window, vig, and 1u/2u sizing rules. MWT Edge fades 67%+ sentiment. Fade Splits fades 67%+ DraftKings bet%. Walk-forward backtest using pregame data only, not actual wagers. Methodology & disclosures.
How MWT Edge Works
Three steps. The same process runs every game.
Measure sentiment
Thousands of data points per day from multiple sources, quantified independently from betting splits. Every signal is timestamped before tip-off.
Identify the crowd
The model flags games where consensus is lopsided enough, and backed by enough signal, to matter.
Fade the consensus
When the crowd is heavily aligned, the model takes the other side. When splits confirm the same lean, it doubles down.
What a Signal Looks Like
When the model flags a divergence, this is what the dashboard shows.
The Backtest
Power 6 regular season + NCAA tournament. Every pick generated from data available only before tip-off.
Walk-forward backtest using only pregame data and odds captured before tip-off. Simulated results, not actual wagers or live betting performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Methodology & disclosures.
NBA Results
Early live results from a small NBA sample. Every signal is timestamped and locked before tip-off.
Live model record. Every signal is timestamped and locked before tip-off and is not retroactively modified. Small sample, not indicative of future results. Model outputs only, not actual wagers. Methodology & disclosures.
Track NBA live
NBA signals are free during early access. Every pick is timestamped before tip-off so you can audit the record yourself.